Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
